美犹他州拯救破产的加州煤炭出口项目的尝试很可能失败

碳道小编 · 2020-09-04 11:09 · 阅读量 · 2166

摘要：能源经济与金融分析研究所（Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis，简称IEEFA ）于2020年8月19日发布的一份研究简报称，美国犹他州拟议中对加州一个破产的煤炭出口项目的2000万美元州投资极有可能导致该州蒙受损失。

图片来源：Google

能源经济与金融分析研究所（Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis，简称IEEFA ）于2020年8月19日发布的一份研究简报称，美国犹他州拟议中对加州一个破产的煤炭出口项目的2000万美元州投资极有可能导致该州蒙受损失。A proposed $20 million state investment in a bankrupt California coal-export project would most likely result in a loss to the state, concludes a research brief published today by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
这份题为《犹他州对破产的加州煤炭出口项目的救助将很可能失败》简报描述了出口市场疲软与社区反对派结合，除了确保吸纳州政府资金用于破产的Insight Terminal Solutions，其他都是花冤枉钱。The brief—Utah Bailout of Bankrupt California Coal-Export Project Would Likely Fail—describes how weak export markets combined with community opposition all but ensure that siphoning state dollars to bankrupt Insight Terminal Solutions would be throwing good money after bad.
“如果这项投资通过，最终2000万美元将被浪费。” IEEFA分析师、简报的主要作者卡尔·凯茨说， “如果这是一个可行的项目，开发商将与私营部门合作，而不是与纳税人携手。”“This will end up being $20 million squandered if it goes through,” said Karl Cates, an IEEFA analyst and lead author of the brief. “If it were a viable project, the developers would be working with private sector money rather than coming hat-in-hand to taxpayers.”
本周犹他州的立法机构将开始讨论这项由一群县委员和立法者推动的救助计划。The bailout, pushed by a group of county commissioners and lawmakers, is being taken up this week by the Utah Legislature.
这份简报指出，Insight Terminal Solutions（ITS）是由一位高管经营，5年前他曾试图让犹他州投资到Bowie Resources and Trafigura下面一个“类似但不同的项目”。IEEFA在那时指出，该提案有赖于公共资金“强调当下煤炭行业缺乏私人金融投资”。The brief notes that Insight Terminal Solutions (ITS) is run by the same executives who tried to get Utah to put money into a “similar if not identical project” under Bowie Resources and Trafigura five years ago. IEEFA at the time noted that the proposal—relying as it did on public dollars—served to “underscore the lack of private financial investment in the coal industry today.”
新的研究简报说：“新计划有相同的漏洞。”“The new plan has the same hole in it,” the new research brief said.
另外，还有一个问题是犹他州的煤炭是否还有可行的出口市场，ITS的高管认为它将进入日本。但随着日本转向低碳密集型发电，日本对煤炭的需求正在减弱。At issue, additionally, are questions as to whether there is even a viable export market for Utah coal, which Insight Terminal Executives say would go to Japan, whose appetite for coal is waning as Japan shifts to less carbon-intensive electricity generation.

“日本的举动是亚洲发达国家摆脱煤炭发展大趋势的一部分：例如，韩国宣布了一项雄心勃勃的、耗资350亿美元的计划，以加大对风能、太阳能和能效项目的投资，希望将国家可再生能源产量在2050年前增加三倍。” 简报中说明。“自2018年以来，疲软的需求和充足的供应共同将环太平洋地区的煤炭价格拉低到五年来的最低水平（请参阅IHS纽卡斯尔基准价格表），这使得美国出口商无法获利。期货合约价格也没有近期反弹的迹象。“Japan’s move is part of a larger trend in developed Asian nations to move away from coal: South Korea, for one, has unveiled an ambitious, $35 billion plan to ramp up investments in wind and solar and in energy efficiency initiatives in hopes of tripling the nation’s renewable energy output by 2025,” the brief states. “Since 2018, a combination of weak demand and abundant supply has pushed Pacific Rim coal prices to their lowest in five years (see the chart below from IHS on the benchmark Newcastle price)—far too low for U.S. exporters to make a profit. Futures contract pricing offers no sign of a near-term rebound.”
要到达日本，犹他州的煤炭必须先海运900英里到奥克兰，然后再跨越2000英里穿过大平洋，如此昂贵的建议将使日本难以与地理位置优越的澳大利亚，印度尼西亚和俄罗斯竞争。To reach Japan, Utah coal would have to be shipped 900 miles overland to Oakland, and then more than 2,000 miles across the Pacific Ocean, a costly proposition that would make it difficult to compete with more favorably located suppliers in Australia, Indonesia, and Russia.
简报还指出，市场力量正在驱使全国各地的煤炭停产，并呼吁更具前瞻性的公共投资。
The brief notes also that market forces are driving coal out of business across the country, and it calls for more forward-looking public investment.
“美国煤炭行业的衰退不可逆转，其影响可以在本地、区域和全球范围内看到。提议的ITS救助计划如果继续进行，将是一团糟，该州几乎不可能从其投资中获得任何回报，蒙受损失的可能性更高。” "The U.S. coal industry is in irreversible decline, and the effects can be seen locally, regionally, and globally. The proposed bailout of ITS, if it proceeds, would be a shot in the dark with little chance of the state reaping any returen on its investment and a much higher likelihood of loss."
“通过对犹他州农村煤田社区进行再投资，可以更好地在当地分配此类支出。”“Such spending would be better deployed locally through reinvestment in Utah’s rural coalfield communities.”
来源：iGDP

热门评论