石油巨头都能预测到汽油时代即将终结

碳道小编 · 2020-07-10 09:07 · 阅读量 · 1981

摘要：据英国卫报6月21日报道，新型冠状病毒使化石燃料行业遭受史上最大的一次打击，而且很明显，2020年对石油和天然气的需求暴跌不仅仅是皮肉之伤。全球新冠病毒危机可能已经触发了大宗石油的终极下跌。

图片来源：今周刊

据英国卫报6月21日报道，新型冠状病毒使化石燃料行业遭受史上最大的一次打击，而且很明显，2020年对石油和天然气的需求暴跌不仅仅是皮肉之伤。全球新冠病毒危机可能已经触发了大宗石油的终极下跌。Coronavirus has dealt the fossil-fuel industry the biggest single blow in its history, and it is clear that 2020’s plummeting demand for oil and gas is no mere flesh wound. The global Covid-19 crisis may have already triggered a terminal decline for big oil.
BP在6月中决定重新设定其对未来三十年的油价预测，这是石油行业震动下的最新动态。该公司取消了对未来30年油价每桶75美元的预测，转为支持平均价格为55美元。这一分水岭的决定一度将其业务价值减少逾170亿美元，这可能意味着其许多尚未开发的石油储备仍将留在地下。BP’s decision last week to reset its oil price forecasts for the next three decades was the latest tremor in a seismic shift for the industry. Its forecasts of a $75-a-barrel oil price over the next 30 years were scrapped in favour of an average price of $55. The watershed decision wiped more than $17bn from the value of its business at a stroke and could mean many of its untapped oil reserves will remain in the ground.
BP在声明中着重指出向可再生未来过渡。首席执行官伯纳德·卢尼表示：“这些艰难的决定根植于我们净零的野心，并在这次流行病中得到了再次确定，将使我们在能源转型中保持竞争力。该公司补充说，新冠流行可能会“加快向低碳的经济和能源系统的过渡的速度”。The transition to a renewable future featured prominently in BP’s statement. Chief executive Bernard Looney said: “These difficult decisions – rooted in our net-zero ambition and reaffirmed by the pandemic – will better enable us to compete through the energy transition.” The company added that the pandemic would probably “accelerate the pace of transition to a lower-carbon economy and energy system”.
显而易见，绿色转型的进程不可阻挡。几周前，皇家荷兰壳牌集团也不可避免地遭遇石油行业回报下滑。壳牌公司披露其股东股息的大幅调整，今年预期年度股息已减少了四分之三，这是自第二次世界大战以来首次削减股息。It is a clear acknowledgement that the progress of the green transformation is unstoppable, only weeks after Royal Dutch Shell too bowed to the inevitable decline of oil industry returns. Shell revealed a dramatic rebasing of its shareholder dividends, wiping three-quarters from the annual payouts expected this year, in its first dividend cut since the second world war.
壳牌首席执行官本·范·伯登当时表示，新冠病毒的流行可能使石油市场更加接近高水位，并且可能意味着该公司表现出对清洁能源项目的偏好，“这将在未来提供更好的服务”。Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said at the time that the pandemic could bring the high-water mark of the oil market closer and may mean that the company shows preference to clean energy projects “which serve us better in the future”.
本·范·伯登比纳德·卢尼更为谨慎，但他们正朝着同样的结论前进。人类最古老的恐怖活动——流行病——表明，世界上两个最强大的污染源已经过时了。Van Beurden has been more cautious than Looney, but they are heading to the same conclusion. The most ancient of human terrors – a pandemic – has shown two of the world’s most powerful polluters to be out of time.
两家公司都承认，由于疫情期间化石燃料使用量下降，全球石油需求的峰值可能会比预期更快到来，专注于绿色经济复苏的政府为此提供了更进一步的动力。一家研究公司Rystad Energy认为，随着全球对燃料的需求在7年内达峰，可能有超过2800亿桶石油留在地下。还有人认为也许去年已经达到峰值。Both companies acknowledge that the peak in global oil demand is likely to come sooner than expected as a result of the collapse in fossil-fuel use during the pandemic, with further momentum provided by governments that focus on a green economic recovery. One research firm, Rystad Energy, believes that more than 280 billion barrels of oil may be left in the ground as the world’s appetite for the fuel peaks in seven years’ time. Others believe the peak may have passed last year.
但是，气候变化的胜利并不能保证。它要求政府加快绿色经济计划，也将是对选民政治意愿的考验。当全球经济遭受自第二次世界大战以来最严重的打击时，政客们将谨慎测试公众对于进一步改革的决心。Nonetheless, a climate victory is not guaranteed. It will require governments to accelerate plans for a green economy, and that will be a test of voters’ political will. Politicians will be wary of testing public resolve for further change when economies around the world have received their worst battering since the second world war.
某些行业，例如航空业，距离能够为减排做出有意义贡献的技术突破似乎还有数十年的时间。Some industries, such as aviation, appear to be decades away from the technological breakthroughs that would enable them to make a meaningful contribution to emissions cuts.
这将给石油公司施加更大压力，要求他们承认自己的命运，并将更多的管理重点和资金投入可再生能源领域。BP设定了到2050年碳足迹净零的目标。但是，其仅将120亿美元年度投资预算中的5亿美元投入绿色能源，可见言行不一，这是颇为熟悉的，对主要污染者的惯常指责。但是，这一次，地球已经存在的危机（冠状病毒和气候问题）对化石燃料企业构成了终极威胁。BP和壳牌非常了解这一点。This will put further pressure on oil companies to acknowledge their fate and put more management focus, and money, into embracing renewables. BP set a carbon footprint target of net zero by 2050. But by putting just $500m of its annual $12bn investment budget into green energy, it showed that words were not being matched with deeds – a familiar accusation can be levelled at major polluters. This time, though, the existential threats to the planet (both Covid and climate) pose a terminal threat to the fossil fuel majors. BP and Shell are savvy enough to know this.
石油公司——在与气候危机作斗争中损失最大的公司——承认他们的行业正处于衰退的风口浪尖，这再次表明重燃希望，带来改变是可能的。The admission by oil companies – the corporations with most to lose from a battle against the climate crisis – that their industry is on the cusp of decline renews hope that change is possible.
来源：IGDP

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